🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still